Bayesian Trend Analysis Statistical Support | P18AS00692

Opportunity Information: Apply for P18AS00692

The "Bayesian Trend Analysis Statistical Support" opportunity is a National Park Service (NPS) effort focused on helping its Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Networks turn several years of ecological field data into credible, defensible trend results that can be used in park management. The I&M program is responsible for long-term monitoring of natural resources across NPS units, and in this case the work centers on upland vegetation and soils data collected by five Intermountain Region networks: Northern Colorado Plateau, Southern Colorado Plateau, Rocky Mountain, Greater Yellowstone, and Chihuahuan Desert. Each network has its own monitoring protocol, including differences in sampling design, field methods, and specific objectives, but all are approaching a similar milestone: they have accumulated roughly 5 to 9 years of data using rotating panel designs and are preparing to produce their first formal trend reports in the coming years.

The core need described in the notice is advanced statistical support to guide analytic approach selection and to build practical, repeatable workflows for trend detection and interpretation. Because the networks use different designs and have relatively short-to-moderate time series so far, the NPS is emphasizing careful model development to detect trends reliably and to relate observed changes to important ecosystem drivers. The title signals a Bayesian orientation, which typically means the analysis may use Bayesian hierarchical or state-space style models that can better handle complex monitoring designs, varying data quality, and multiple sources of uncertainty while producing interpretable outputs for decision-makers.

The work is structured as statistical support across several phases of analysis, not simply a one-off analysis product. The stated intent is to ensure the datasets from these monitoring programs are analyzed effectively and consistently enough that findings, uncertainty, and management implications can be communicated to parks and partners. The expectation is that this support will help translate raw monitoring measurements into clear conclusions about resource condition and direction of change, with an emphasis on actionable information that can inform decisions in National Parks.

Administratively, this is a discretionary funding action issued by the U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service, under a cooperative agreement mechanism, with an activity category of "Information and Statistics" (CFDA 15.945). The notice lists an award ceiling of $95,000 and an expected number of awards of one. Eligible applicants are identified as nonprofits with 501(c)(3) status (excluding institutions of higher education), but the posting is explicitly a Notice of Intent and not an open solicitation. No applications are being accepted because the task agreement is being awarded under an existing cooperative agreement (P18AC00340) that was previously competed. The named provider for the statistical support in the description is Conservation Science Partners (CSP), indicating the work is intended to be carried out through that established partnership rather than through a new competitive application process.

• The Department of the Interior, National Park Service in the information and statistics sector is offering a public funding opportunity titled "Bayesian Trend Analysis Statistical Support" and is now available to receive applicants.
• Interested and eligible applicants and submit their applications by referencing the CFDA number(s): 15.945.
• This funding opportunity was created on Sep 14, 2018.
• Applicants must submit their applications by This is a Notice of Intent only. This Task Agreement is being awarded under Cooperative Agreement P18AC00340 which was already awarded under a competitive process. No applications are being accepted at this time.. (Agency may still review applications by suitable applicants for the remaining/unused allocated funding in 2026.)
• Each selected applicant is eligible to receive up to $95,000.00 in funding.
• The number of recipients for this funding is limited to 1 candidate(s).
• Eligible applicants include: Nonprofits having a 501(c)(3) status with the IRS, other than institutions of higher education.

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